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Interview: Impact of JCA and Project Orbis on the European revenue potential of an oncology product

  • Headshot of Claudio Valenti

    Claudio Valenti, MA

Discover insights from ISPOR US 2025
Headshot of Claudio Valenti

A conversation with Claudio Valenti

Headshot of Claudio Valenti
In anticipation of the 2025 ISPOR meeting, we had the opportunity to speak with Claudio Valenti, Senior Manager Market Access, to discuss his poster “Impact of JCA and Project Orbis on the European Revenue Potential of an Oncology Product.” Valenti’s research examines the impact of Joint Clinical Assessment (JCA) and Project Orbis on the revenue potential of oncology products, highlighting that these initiatives can lead to higher and faster revenues for biopharma.
Headshot of Claudio Valenti

What inspired this research?

Claudio Valenti: Joint Clinical Assessment (JCA) and Project Orbis are among the most anticipated and widely discussed initiatives in recent years. While extensive research has explored their impact on key industry factors — such as time to market and medicine availability — their financial implications, particularly their impact on medicine revenue, have received comparatively less attention.

The goal of our research was to determine whether JCA and Project Orbis present an opportunity for pharmaceutical companies and to quantify this potential in terms of revenues for a hypothetical new oncology treatment.

Was there a hypothesis that the research confirmed?

Claudio Valenti: We hypothesized that JCA and Project Orbis could enable pharmaceutical companies to achieve higher and faster revenues compared to traditional pathways. Our findings support this assumption.
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What are the key takeaways from your research?

Claudio Valenti: The main insights from our research include:

JCA and Project Orbis offer pharmaceutical manufacturers the opportunity to achieve higher revenues within a shorter time horizon. The impact of international reference pricing (IRP) on prices appears to be low to minimal. Although faster price erosion may occur due to earlier availability in some low-price European markets following JCA and Project Orbis, this effect is expected to be outweighed by a faster uptake in volume.

In our base-case scenario, JCA and Project Orbis could have represented an 11 percent revenue increase over five years compared to previous models. The projected impact ranged from +3 percent in our worst-case scenario to +14 percent in our best-case scenario.

Was there anything in the research that was surprising, that you didn't expect, that you found out?

Claudio Valenti: Initially, we anticipated faster price erosion due to IRP following quicker market entry in lower-priced markets. While our simulation confirmed this trend in the years immediately following launch, by the fifth year, prices closely aligned with a scenario where JCA and Project Orbis were not implemented.

What are the next steps from this research?

Claudio Valenti: This research presents a few limitations, with one of the most significant being that potential revenue calculations were based on list prices due to the uncertainty surrounding list-to-net price discounts in most EU markets.

Moving forward, it will be essential to focus on estimating the net price of new pharmaceutical products, providing further insight into the real revenue impact of JCA and Project Orbis.

 

Citations relevant to the content described herein are provided in the poster mentioned here. Readers should review all available information related to the topics mentioned herein and rely on their own experience and expertise in making decisions related thereto.

 

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