When prices travel: How Most Favored Nation and international reference pricing are reshaping global market access
By linking US reimbursement to ex-US price benchmarks, MFN adds complexities for manufacturers, policymakers, and healthcare systems and raises questions about the impact on affordability, access, and innovation. It brings the US into the central issue surrounding IRP: the effect that pricing decisions in one country have on others through reference baskets (groups of socioeconomically comparable countries), benchmarking formulas, and pricing revision cycles.
Key takeaways
Complex and colliding pricing and access policies
Key elements of IRP include:
- Basket size, or the number of reference countries included;
- Referencing application — whether only at launch or updated periodically;
- Benchmark methodology, such as average, median, or lowest price;
- Adjustment factors, such as purchasing power parity, to account for differences in the general cost of living across countries and for exchange-rate considerations;
- Price level referenced (ex-manufacturer or wholesale price).
IRP policy change is common, and some countries in Europe have sought to shift away from it. One such example is Germany, which recently amended its Medical Research Act to introduce optional confidential discounted reimbursements so companies could keep their reimbursement price negotiations with statutory insurance funds private, and therefore not jeopardise their negotiations with other countries.
Many questions about how MFN will be applied and its longer-term impact remain. What is known is that MFN, which President Trump issued as an Executive Order in May 2025, seeks to tie US drug prices to those in similarly developed countries.
In December 2025, Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) published the Global Benchmark for Efficient Drug Pricing (GLOBE) Model and the Guarding US Medicare Against Rising Drug Costs (GUARD) Model as mandatory IRP-style initiatives, using a 19-country reference basket for MFN benchmarking.
Both GLOBE (Medicare Part B) and GUARD (Medicare Part D) include two IRP benchmarks: a default CMS-derived international benchmark that is based on international pricing data sources, and an optional manufacturer-submitted volume-weighted average net price benchmark.
The administration has also introduced a voluntary CMS model called GENEROUS (GENErating cost Reductions fOr US Medicaid), which adjusts Medicaid pricing based on manufacturer-reported average prices from 8 countries: the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, Japan, Denmark, and Switzerland.
How GUARD and GLOBE will evolve remains uncertain, as both are proposed models covering 25% of their respective Medicare populations, equivalent to roughly 5% of the US population, given that Medicare covers approximately 20% of the population; however, the share may be larger in Medicare-concentrated therapeutic areas. The impact of GENEROUS, meanwhile, will depend on how many states and manufacturers choose to participate. Beyond Medicare and Medicaid, MFN’s implications across the US healthcare ecosystem remain uncertain.
Implications for global drug pricing policy
With MFN, some manufacturers are now delaying European launches, opting not to launch, and even withdrawing existing products from markets for fear of price erosion in the US. Instead, manufacturers of some products — particularly more costly, innovative products — are opting to launch first in markets that offer incentives for innovation and pose a lower risk of IRP spillover than European markets, for example, Japan.
Implications for HEOR, evidence generation, and HTA strategy
In this environment, HEOR, evidence generation, and HTA leaders can play a more strategic role by taking four practical steps:
Conclusion
Much of MFN’s longer-term impact is difficult to predict. However, it will require manufacturers to think carefully about evidence, launch planning, and pricing. In a more globally interconnected pricing environment, it will increasingly be up to HEOR and HTA teams to find ways to address payer uncertainty, support value recognition, and prepare for more HTA-like scenarios in the US and other markets. Manufacturers that bring evidence generation closer to global pricing and access strategy will be better positioned to manage the risks ahead.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article does not constitute legal advice. Cencora, Inc. strongly encourages readers to review available information related to the topics discussed and to rely on their own experience and expertise in making decisions related thereto.
Sources
- Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. GENEROUS (GENErating cost Reductions fOr U.S. Medicaid) model. Last modified 23 December 2025. Accessed 23 April 2026. https://www.cms.gov/priorities/innovation/innovation-models/generous
- Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. GLOBE (Global Benchmark for Efficient Drug Pricing) model. Last modified 29 December 2025. Accessed 23 April 2026. https://www.cms.gov/priorities/innovation/innovation-models/globe
- Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. GUARD (Guarding U.S. Medicare Against Rising Drug Costs) model. Last modified 29 December 2025. Accessed 23 April 2026. https://www.cms.gov/priorities/innovation/innovation-models/guard
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