Článek

When prices travel: How Most Favored Nation and international reference pricing are reshaping global market access

  • Rafael de Alencar, MSc

  • Erika Wissinger, PhD

  • David Ringger, PhD

  • Diane Smith, PhD

  • Casper Paardekooper, MSc

In an interconnected pricing world, a decision in one market can echo far beyond its borders. For health economics and outcomes research (HEOR) and health technology assessment (HTA) leaders, Most Favored Nation (MFN) and international reference pricing (IRP) are raising the stakes for how value is demonstrated, recognised, and sustained.
As highlighted in a recent issue of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR)’s Value & Outcomes Spotlight, the introduction of Most Favored Nation (MFN) in the US has created one of the most significant changes to drug pricing and access policies. MFN moves the US toward international reference pricing (IRP), a mechanism long used in many other markets, including across Europe, thereby creating a convergence of pharmaceutical pricing systems that once operated in separate domains. In this article, we revisit this critical and evolving topic in HEOR and market access.

By linking US reimbursement to ex-US price benchmarks, MFN adds complexities for manufacturers, policymakers, and healthcare systems and raises questions about the impact on affordability, access, and innovation. It brings the US into the central issue surrounding IRP: the effect that pricing decisions in one country have on others through reference baskets (groups of socioeconomically comparable countries), benchmarking formulas, and pricing revision cycles.
For health economics and outcomes research (HEOR), evidence generation, and health technology assessment (HTA) leaders, the addition of the US to the IRP discussion means that evidence strategy must be able to support global value defensibility, launch sequencing, and uncertainty management across interconnected markets.

Key takeaways

Complex and colliding pricing and access policies

The data insights company GlobalData monitors more than 75 countries where IRP is used as a policy tool to inform or regulate medicine prices. The role IRP plays varies by market, creating a complex landscape for pricing negotiations and requiring regular adjustments and updates to IRP models. 

Key elements of IRP include:
  • Basket size, or the number of reference countries included; 
  • Referencing application — whether only at launch or updated periodically; 
  • Benchmark methodology, such as average, median, or lowest price; 
  • Adjustment factors, such as purchasing power parity, to account for differences in the general cost of living across countries and for exchange-rate considerations;
  • Price level referenced (ex-manufacturer or wholesale price).


IRP policy change is common, and some countries in Europe have sought to shift away from it. One such example is Germany, which recently amended its Medical Research Act to introduce optional confidential discounted reimbursements so companies could keep their reimbursement price negotiations with statutory insurance funds private, and therefore not jeopardise their negotiations with other countries. 

Many questions about how MFN will be applied and its longer-term impact remain. What is known is that MFN, which President Trump issued as an Executive Order in May 2025, seeks to tie US drug prices to those in similarly developed countries.

In December 2025, Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) published the Global Benchmark for Efficient Drug Pricing (GLOBE) Model and the Guarding US Medicare Against Rising Drug Costs (GUARD) Model as mandatory IRP-style initiatives, using a 19-country reference basket for MFN benchmarking. 

Both GLOBE (Medicare Part B) and GUARD (Medicare Part D) include two IRP benchmarks: a default CMS-derived international benchmark that is based on international pricing data sources, and an optional manufacturer-submitted volume-weighted average net price benchmark.

The administration has also introduced a voluntary CMS model called GENEROUS (GENErating cost Reductions fOr US Medicaid), which adjusts Medicaid pricing based on manufacturer-reported average prices from 8 countries: the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, Japan, Denmark, and Switzerland.

How GUARD and GLOBE will evolve remains uncertain, as both are proposed models covering 25% of their respective Medicare populations, equivalent to roughly 5% of the US population, given that Medicare covers approximately 20% of the population; however, the share may be larger in Medicare-concentrated therapeutic areas. The impact of GENEROUS, meanwhile, will depend on how many states and manufacturers choose to participate. Beyond Medicare and Medicaid, MFN’s implications across the US healthcare ecosystem remain uncertain. 

Implications for global drug pricing policy

The impact of reference pricing on launch sequencing and the pricing corridor is well understood in Europe. Typically, companies choose to delay or avoid launching a product in a country with a mandated low price to avoid a potential price decrease in countries that use reference pricing. Thus, lower-income countries in Europe face delays or even no access at all because pricing is anchored to countries that can afford to pay more for the product. 

With MFN, some manufacturers are now delaying European launches, opting not to launch, and even withdrawing existing products from markets for fear of price erosion in the US. Instead, manufacturers of some products — particularly more costly, innovative products — are opting to launch first in markets that offer incentives for innovation and pose a lower risk of IRP spillover than European markets, for example, Japan.

Implications for HEOR, evidence generation, and HTA strategy

These developments create new strategic implications for HEOR, evidence generation, and HTA teams. As MFN and IRP-style policies increase the consequences of price differences across markets, evidence becomes more than a requirement for local reimbursement; it becomes a foundation for global value defensibility. HEOR leaders will need to anticipate how payer and HTA critiques in one market may affect pricing expectations, launch sequencing, and value perception in others. Common evidence challenges include inappropriate comparators, non-representative populations, immature or non-clinically meaningful endpoints, limitations in indirect treatment comparisons or external controls, insufficiently reliable real-world data sources, and uncertainty over long-term outcomes.

In this environment, HEOR, evidence generation, and HTA leaders can play a more strategic role by taking four practical steps:
Evidence plans should be designed early to support approval, HTA assessment, payer negotiation, and long-term value demonstration. This includes careful comparator selection, patient-relevant endpoints, patient-reported outcomes, and plans for long-term follow-up. Where data are immature, extrapolations should be clinically anchored, transparently tested, and, where possible, complemented by fit-for-purpose real-world data from comparable patient populations.
Greater pricing and reimbursement scrutiny will increase the need to quantify incremental health benefits, healthcare resource-use offsets, downstream treatment implications, affordability, and budget impact. Where credible and relevant, value narratives should also reflect broader outcomes, such as productivity, caregiver quality of life, societal benefits, and patient-centered value elements that may influence payer, HTA, or policy discussions.
For products with uncertainty around long-term benefit, durability, comparative effectiveness, or real-world use, post-launch evidence should be planned before launch rather than treated as a follow-on activity. This may include registries, natural history studies, external comparator approaches, or other fit-for-purpose real-world evidence. HEOR teams can also help define outcomes, data sources, assessment timing, governance, and economic consequences for managed access or outcomes-based agreements.
HEOR teams should work closely with pricing, market access, and policy colleagues to assess how different launch sequences, evidence packages, and value claims may affect payer willingness to recognise product value across markets. Scenario planning should consider not only price exposure under MFN/IRP but also the evidence required to justify value in markets that may become more strategically important. 
Practically, this means HEOR and HTA leaders should pressure-test evidence plans against a more interconnected pricing environment. This includes identifying markets whose HTA decisions or net prices may carry disproportionate global consequences, aligning evidence generation priorities with launch sequencing scenarios, and ensuring that value narratives are consistent enough to travel across markets while remaining adaptable to local payer and HTA requirements.

Conclusion

How MFN weighs on reference baskets, revision cycles, and pricing responses could result in significant disruption to affordability, access, and incentives for innovation. 

Much of MFN’s longer-term impact is difficult to predict. However, it will require manufacturers to think carefully about evidence, launch planning, and pricing. In a more globally interconnected pricing environment, it will increasingly be up to HEOR and HTA teams to find ways to address payer uncertainty, support value recognition, and prepare for more HTA-like scenarios in the US and other markets. Manufacturers that bring evidence generation closer to global pricing and access strategy will be better positioned to manage the risks ahead.
Note: Sources listed below


Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article does not constitute legal advice. Cencora, Inc. strongly encourages readers to review available information related to the topics discussed and to rely on their own experience and expertise in making decisions related thereto.


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Sources
  • Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. GENEROUS (GENErating cost Reductions fOr U.S. Medicaid) model. Last modified 23 December 2025. Accessed 23 April 2026. https://www.cms.gov/priorities/innovation/innovation-models/generous  
  • Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. GLOBE (Global Benchmark for Efficient Drug Pricing) model. Last modified 29 December 2025. Accessed 23 April 2026. https://www.cms.gov/priorities/innovation/innovation-models/globe 
  • Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. GUARD (Guarding U.S. Medicare Against Rising Drug Costs) model. Last modified 29 December 2025. Accessed 23 April 2026. https://www.cms.gov/priorities/innovation/innovation-models/guard 
  • Fick M, Satija B, Patton D. Drugmakers delay some European launches with a wary eye on Trump’s pricing policies. Reuters. Published 31 March 2026. Accessed 19 May 2026. https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2026-03-31/drugmakers-delay-some-european-launches-with-a-wary-eye-on-trumps-pricing-policies 
  • Grueger J, Martin K, Sullivan SD. Referencing drug prices of other countries may not sustainably lower prices in the United States: Lessons from Europe. Value Health. 2025;28(9):1305-1308. doi: 10.1016/j.jval.2025.06.010.
  • KFF. The facts about Medicare spending. Published 4 August 2026. Accessed 27 August 2026. https://www.kff.org/medicare/the-facts-about-medicare-spending/ 
  • Kleja M. US cholesterol drug withdrawn in Denmark, MFN pricing policy blamed. Euractiv. Published 6 March 2026. Accessed 8 May 2026. https://www.euractiv.com/news/us-cholesterol-drug-withdrawn-in-denmark-mfn-pricing-policy-blamed/  
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  • Schott M, Brupbacher O, Batache D. Consultation opened on amendments to pharmaceutical pricing. Bär & Karrer Briefing. Published March 2026. Accessed 19 May 2026. https://www.baerkarrer.ch/userdata/20260318-ld-briefing-revision-kvv-klv.pdf 
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  • WhiteHouse.gov. The White House: Delivering Most Favored Nation Prescription Drug Pricing to American Patients [executive order]. Published 12 May 2025. Accessed 23 April 2026. https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/05/delivering-most-favored-nation-prescription-drug-pricing-to-american-patients/ 
  • Wissinger E, Ringger D, Paardekooper C, Smith D, and de Alencar R. Most-favored nation policy and international reference pricing reshape global market access interdependencies. 2026. Value and Outcomes Spotlight. May/June. https://www.ispor.org/publications/journals/value-outcomes-spotlight/vos-archives/issue/view/drug-pricing-policies/when-worlds-converge--how-most-favored-nation-policy-and-international-reference-pricing-reshape-global-market-access-interdependencies  
 

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